create directory for transfer lock file, and catch perm error

Before, the call to mkProgressUpdater created the directory as a
side-effect, but since that ignored failure to create it, this led to
a "does not exist" exception when the transfer lock file was created,
rather than a permissions error.

So, make sure the directory exists before trying to lock the file in it.

When a PermissionDenied exception is caught, skip making the transfer lock.
This lets downloads from readonly remotes happen.

If an upload is being tried, and the lock file can't be written due to
permissions, then probably the actual transfer will fail for the same
reason, so I think it's ok that it continues w/o taking the lock in that
case.

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